Tuesday, 10 March 2015

Speculators devalued Ukrainian Hryvnia.

Ukrainian Hryvnia's devaluation of 2014-2015 years looks like purposely and previously thought-out large speculations. Hryvnia's exchange rate was stable during four and a half years and one American dollar equaled almost eight hryvnias since 21st August 2009 till 6th February 2014. But on 7th February 2014 Ukrainian monetary unit began to depreciate very rapidly and then official Hryvnia's rate decreased to 8,70 hryvnias per 1$, according to the official site of National Bank of Ukraine. http://www.bank.gov.ua/control/uk/curmetal/detail/currency?period=daily On 28th February 2014 1$ amounted to 9,98 hryvnias and in the end of March, on 28th March 2014 official exchange rate of Hryvnia was 1$=10,85 hryvnias, and in April of 2014 Ukrainian Hryvnia devalued to almost 13 hryvnias per 1$  (on 14th April 2014 1 USD=12,97 UAH), though afterwards Hryvnia a little bit increased. It seemed that Ukrainian Hryvnia's devaluation was just made up in someone's imagination, then was drawn on the paper by somebody or by some several persons, but it wasn't economically substantiated. 
In April of 2014, before presidential elections presidential candidate Petro Poroshenko promised to stabilize official Hryvnia's rate to less than 10 Ukrainian hryvnias per 1 American dollar in a case of his victory. Here are his thinkings about the exchange rate of Hryvnia and about people who took bank loans in the precedent years, and here is his promise of Hryvnia' stabilization to less than 10 UAH per 1 USD in these April's videos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0T7kw3Ag88 and here:       

And on 25th May 2014 P. Poroshenko was elected the President of Ukraine, but he didn't keep his promise and already at the end of August of 2014 Hryvnia continued to depreciate, reaching the rate of almost 14 hryvnias per 1 dollar (1 USD=13,89 UAH on 27th August 2014). Though the largest devaluation of Ukrainian national currency started in November of 2014. Thus, on 6th November 2014 1 American dollar equaled 13,95 Ukrainian hryvnias, on 7th November 2014 1 dollar amounted to 14,47 hryvnias, on 10th November 2014 1 USD=14,80 UAH and on 11th November 2014 1 USD=15,77 UAH! But Hryvnia set its devaluation's record in February of 2015. Look at Hryvnia's official rate in the last month: 1 USD=16,72 UAH on 4th February 2015, 1 USD=18 UAH on 5th February 2015, 1 USD=23 UAH on 6th February 2015!, and the largest depreciation was on 26th February 2015, when 1 American dollar amounted to 30,01 Ukrainian hryvnias, after what Ukrainian currency's rate slowly increased to 22,89 hryvnias per 1 dollar on 6th March 2015. Just unbelievable rates as if National Bank of Ukraine excogitated such Hryvnia's rates how state power wanted, because daily decreases of Hryvnia's value hadn't economic reasons. 
And if president Poroshenko didn't keep his financial promise of Hryvnia's rate (less than 10 hryvnia per 1 dollar after his victory at presidential elections), so he is real lier and isn't a serious politician of global level. Serious politician must be responsible for own words, serious president or serious prime minister as politician of global level must retire, if he/she can't keep own promises, giving to society before presidential or parliamentary elections. So if Poroshenko would like to be serious politician, he must retire and announce new presidential elections in the country. But before it, of course, Valeriya Hontaryeva must be dismissed from the post of the Head of National Bank of Ukraine for such huge devaluation of Ukrainian Hryvnia. While many Ukrainian citizens live in poverty, economic crisis doesn't concern Hontaryeva's family, which lives luxury life. As newspaper "Vesti" wrote two weeks ago, 25-year-old Anton Hontaryev, son of the Head of NBU, traveled with his wife to India, France, Dominicana and Turkey during the last six months http://vesti-ukr.com/svetskie-vesti/90064-gontareva-ezdit-na-pjati-avto-i-uzhinaet-u-bassejna, meanwhile Russian troops kill, wound and take Ukrainian warriors in the captivity. And earlier main banker of Ukrainian state declared that her salary (10000 hryvnias per 1 month) was too small for such state post. It would be interesting to see how Hontaryeva could live with a salary as little pension of many Ukrainian pensioners (1500 UAH/month).
But the biggest quantity of the questions is to Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who was appointed on the main economic post in Ukraine by the majority of Ukrainian people's deputies yet on 22nd February 2014 in Ukrainian parliament. On 25th February 2015 A. Yatsenyuk said at the Cabinet of the Ministers' press-conference: "There are a lot of US dollars in Ukraine, but some people bought and buy share of American currency to make speculative activity in the country". How does Yatsenyuk rule in Ukraine, if speculators have more influence than the Prime Minister in the state?

And on 25th February 2015 the Minister of Finance of Ukraine Nataliya Yaresko explained that all what happened with Hryvnia had lately been the consequence of speculations at the common press-conference with the Head of NBU Valeriya Hontaryeva. So A. Yatsenyuk and N. Yaresko publicly admitted they knew about making speculations with Ukrainian Hryvnia lately. Why did they not stop speculators? Why do they not say the names of speculators or organizations to Ukrainian society? Why do they not assert about such persons or organizations to police, public prosecutor's office, court? Why does the Minister of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov not stop speculative actions in bank sector of Ukrainian economy as former banker and owner of liquidated "Basis" bank, who must be well-oriented in bank sphere?
So members of Ukrainian state power say about speculators, but don't catch them!
Instead of it in March-May of 2014 Ukraine's government often told about Russian occupation of Crimea as the reason of huge Hryvnia's depreciation. But as counter-argument, Georgia had lost Abkhazia and South Ossetia after Russian-Georgian war in August of 2008, but Georgian Lari didn't devalue like Ukrainian hryvnia did. Searching present and past economic indicators of all world countries on this American site http://www.tradingeconomics.com, we can see exchange rate of Georgian Lari in the end of 2008 and now for comparison: 1,67 lari per 1$ on 31st December 2008 and 2,17 lari per 1$ on 6th March 2015, almost like on 31st December 2003, when 1 dollar equaled 2,19 lari. Practically without changes for 12 years! Do You know what Hryvnia's exchange rate was on 31st December 2003? 5,33 UAH per 1 USD!So, loss of state territories isn't a real reason of currency's devaluation and Georgia is the example of it.
Ukrainian state power also explains Hryvnia's devaluation as the result of long-term antiterroristic operation in Donbas, which is Russian-Ukrainian war in fact. But my another counter-argument here: Libya, where terror and chaos rule nowadays, where two governments and two parliaments function and are at enmity with each other, where armed conflicts occur between different local military formations, from where a lot of unemployed Libyans escape to Europe, searching work and peaceful existence there. In general Libyan state is very close to the beginning of civic war, so present political situation is more than just difficult there, but Libyan Dinar didn't and doesn't devalue. When Gaddafi's regime finally fell in October of 2011, 1 American dollar amounted to 1,24 Libyan dinar (31.10.2011) and now Dinar's rate is a few changed: 1$=1,35 dinar (06.03.2015). So why did Ukrainian Hryvnia devalue in 2014-2015?
Various politicians and so-called economic experts frighten Ukraine's population, talking about near default status in Ukrainian state, what influences on Hryvnia's exchange rate and devalues it. But, as example, Argentina, where state power declared default in the country on 31st July 2014. Then 1$ equaled 8,20 Argentinian Peso on the day of the second Argentinian default, and on 6th March 2015 1 American dollar amounted to 8,74 Argentinian pesos. As You see, small change happened with Argentinian currency's rate after second default in the history of Argentina. And Ukrainian currency depreciated very much...
And what must really frighten Ukrainian nation, that's close friendship between present Ukrainian state power and  American billionaire George Soros, who visited Ukraine at least three times during the last 12 months: in June of 2014, in Autumn of 2014 and in January of 2015 and had private and confidential meetings with the representatives of Ukrainian state power, as Ukrainian media (including presidential 5th TV-channel) talked earlier. Why do these meetings frighten? Because G. Soros is famous in the world for own largest speculations with English Pound Sterling and Italian Lira in September of 1992, when Pound Sterling and Lira were strongly devalued and were forced to leave European Monetary System, and national banks of Great Britain and Italy spent billions of own money from state reserves to stabilize their national currency's rate, though Italy feels consequences of that economic crisis nowadays too.         

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